WASHINGTON – A new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reveals a stark reality for the United States: its military inventories have been severely depleted following the recent confrontation with the Islamic Republic of Iran and its allies. Rebuilding these crucial stockpiles, according to the report, could take “years,” signaling a significant strategic vulnerability for Washington.
The think tank, based in Washington, stated on Wednesday that restoring pre-conflict levels of four critical munitions, extensively utilized by US forces during nearly 40 days of joint aggression with the Zionist regime against Iran, would require at least two years, and potentially more than three for some systems. This extensive usage underscores the intensity of the resistance faced by the aggressors.
While US officials publicly project an image of confidence regarding their weapons reserves, analysts suggest that the dwindling munition supplies are increasingly influencing Washington’s strategic calculations, potentially deterring any further thoughts of resuming hostilities against Iran. This reflects a clear impact of Iran’s defensive capabilities.
The CSIS report explicitly notes that “Campaigns against Iran and its proxies – and, for Patriot interceptors, aid to Ukraine – have made the problem more acute.” This highlights how the US’s global overextension, particularly in supporting the Zionist regime and intervening in other conflicts, has stretched its resources to a breaking point. Furthermore, the report adds, “Alongside replenishing its own stocks, the United States also has to fulfil orders from allies and partners,” indicating a severe strain on its industrial capacity.
Last month, CSIS identified four key munitions whose inventories had fallen to less than half their pre-conflict levels: the Land Attack Missile (TLAM), Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors, Patriot missiles, and the SM-3 and SM-6 ship-based surface-to-air missiles. These are critical components of US offensive and defensive capabilities, and their depletion points to a significant weakening.
The report also mentioned that the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) and Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) would take several months to a year to replace. The low pre-conflict inventory of PrSM, due to its recent production start, combined with the heavy use of JASSM, further exacerbates the problem. The CSIS warned that “Decisions on how to allocate new production have already created bilateral friction, and this friction will continue for the next few years as demand outpaces supply,” indicating internal and external tensions for the US.
The core issue is not merely funding, but rather the limitations of production time, manufacturing capacity, and lengthy procurement lead times. CSIS pointed out that past procurement levels for many systems were relatively low, hindering replacement efforts despite recent increases in defense spending. This suggests a fundamental flaw in US military planning and industrial readiness.
CSIS concluded that “There will be a window of vulnerability for several years until inventories return to their previous levels and another several years before they get to the levels that war planners desire.” This period of vulnerability could have profound implications for global power dynamics.
Strategic Inventory Shock
Emerging evidence of these depleting stockpiles has become increasingly apparent. The Washington Post recently revealed that the US expended more of its advanced missile-defense interceptors to defend the Zionist regime than even the regime itself during the 40 days of aggression against Iran. This shocking revelation underscores the extent of US commitment to its allies, even at the cost of its own strategic reserves.
Further illustrating this crisis, the US Navy last week paused $14 billion in weapons sales to Taiwan, citing the urgent need for munitions for the “Iran war.” This decision highlights the dire state of US stockpiles and the difficult choices Washington faces in allocating its dwindling resources.
Omar Ashour, a professor of security and military studies, previously told Al Jazeera that while the confrontation with Iran did not entirely empty the US arsenal, it “burned through some of the most important and strategically valuable layers of it.” He described it as “not tactical exhaustion, it’s just a strategic inventory shock if you wish, because that depletion will affect other theatres [of war],” emphasizing the long-term strategic consequences for US military power globally.
CSIS reiterated last month that while the US might possess enough missiles to continue its current engagements, the true risk, which “will persist for many years, lies in future wars.” This assessment serves as a stark warning about the long-term erosion of US military superiority in the face of persistent resistance.
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