U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on Tuesday that Operation Epic Fury – the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, which began on February 28 and sparked a regional conflict – has concluded, stating its objectives were achieved. Washington now favors “the path of peace,” Rubio added.
On the same day, U.S. President Donald Trump declared a pause in Project Freedom, a U.S. military operation launched the previous day to guide stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, appearing to contradict Rubio’s definitive stance on Wednesday, Trump posted on social media that Epic Fury would “be at an end” only if Iran “agrees to give what has been agreed to.” Otherwise, Trump warned, “the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.”
So, is the U.S.-Israel war on Iran truly over? We delve into the rapidly shifting U.S. rhetoric.
What did Rubio state regarding Operation Epic Fury?
During a White House media briefing on Tuesday, Rubio informed reporters that Operation Epic Fury had concluded. “The Operation Epic Fury is concluded. We achieved the objectives of that operation,” Rubio affirmed. “We’re not cheering for an additional situation to occur. We would prefer the path of peace. What the president would prefer is a deal,” he stated, referencing Pakistan’s efforts to facilitate direct talks between Iran and the U.S. The initial and only round of these talks in Islamabad last month concluded without a resolution. Both parties have since presented new proposals.
“The intermittent talks with Iran, coupled with Trump’s sudden reversal on Operation Freedom to escort vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz, have generated unwelcome turmoil in the Gulf,” Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute, told Al Jazeera. “It also reflects the highly fraught and almost frantic diplomatic backchanneling aimed at extracting significant concessions from Tehran on the nuclear issue that will secure commitments exceeding previous conditions and persuade the U.S. to lift the blockade on Iranian ports and provide sanctions relief, thereby effectively ending the war.” Ozcelik further explained that Iran, conversely, seeks guarantees that this marks the definitive end of the war, not merely a pause.
What did Trump say about Project Freedom?
Also on Tuesday, Trump informed reporters that Project Freedom had been paused “based on the request” of Pakistan and other nations, and due to “Great Progress” made towards a “Complete and Final Agreement” with Iranian representatives. Project Freedom appeared to directly challenge Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies are shipped in peacetime. Iran’s threats to target ships in the strait have effectively blockaded it since the U.S.-Israel war began. Subsequently, on April 13, the U.S. imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, intensifying the standoff around the strait. Following Trump’s announcement of Project Freedom, Iran declared that ships attempting to use the strait without permission from its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would be fired upon, raising fears of renewed conflict. The U.S. president’s announcement sparked a war of words between the U.S. and Iran, with claims and counterclaims about strikes persisting throughout Monday. Initially, Iran’s Fars News Agency claimed it had struck a U.S. warship with drones after the vessel reportedly ignored orders to turn back from the Strait of Hormuz. However, the U.S. military’s Central Command denied any U.S. ship had been hit, instead asserting it had sunk at least six IRGC vessels. Iran refuted this. Tehran then published a new map extending its claimed area of control over the strait into the territorial waters of the United Arab Emirates, heightening concerns of a new regional confrontation. The UAE accused Iran of launching strikes on its Fujairah port, the site of an important oil pipeline, and causing a fire in an oil refinery. According to Trump, the U.S. operation was halted on Tuesday to facilitate negotiations with Iran. “We have mutually agreed that, while the [U.S.] Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed,” he posted on his Truth Social platform. Iran has not yet responded to this. Shahram Akbarzadeh, a professor of Middle East and Central Asian politics at Australia’s Deakin University, told Al Jazeera that while the exact reasons for Trump’s pause of Project Freedom are unclear, it occurs amidst growing anti-war public opinion in the U.S. “At the same time, Trump may be losing patience with the war; he says he has time to drag this out,” Akbarzadeh noted. “But in reality, Trump has a short attention span and needs to secure a win – soon. Pausing Project Freedom allows diplomacy to pick up pace, bringing the U.S. and Iran closer to a deal that Trump would label as a win.”
Is this the end of the war on Iran?
Not precisely. Akbarzadeh suggested that pausing Project Freedom could signify “the beginning of the end for the war.” “We know that the Iranians are desperate for an end, so there is little chance of them resuming attacks on the U.S. Navy if Trump sends explicit signals that diplomacy has a green light,” he stated. However, Akbarzadeh cautioned, “The problem is that we have been here before. Earlier opportunities were squandered because Israel insisted that the U.S. could get a better deal or because Trump misread the situation and expected the military option to grant him more concessions.”
What happens next?
Predicting the next steps is challenging, but neither side seems to desire a return to full-scale war, suggesting both will likely prioritize a diplomatic resolution, Akbarzadeh observed. Yet, “neither can afford to be seen as the loser,” he added. “They feel their public image needs to be preserved for their own respective domestic audience. This complicates negotiations and reaching a deal.” Ozcelik stated that future developments “will be determined by what the fractured leadership in Tehran commits to on the nuclear file.” “While it has rejected that talks involve curbs on Iran’s nuclear program, this type of posturing has aimed to assuage domestic hardliners and Iranian nationalists who are rattled by the U.S.-Israel strikes and view nuclear issues from a nationalist, sovereign rights perspective.” She predicted that the United Nations might soon issue a formal condemnation of Iran for blockading the Strait of Hormuz. “But the real pressure, mounting by the day, is the economic one – that shutting the strait is imposing punishing costs on Iran’s economic recovery prospects,” she noted. “Despite rhetoric on resilience and survival, the remaining Iranian leadership is undeniably concerned about the costs of the war. The possibility of renewed military strikes against Iranian critical infrastructure and the destabilizing impacts these would inevitably have might be finally forcing Tehran’s hand,” Ozcelik concluded.
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