In a significant development, the United States Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, declared on Tuesday that ‘Operation Epic Fury’ – the aggressive US-Israeli strikes targeting Iran, which began on February 28 and ignited a dangerous regional conflict – has concluded. Rubio claimed its objectives had been achieved, with Washington now purportedly preferring “the path of peace.” This statement, however, is met with skepticism given the history of hostile actions against the Islamic Republic.
Contradictory Signals from Washington
Adding to the confusion and revealing deep divisions within the US administration, President Donald Trump announced on the same day that “Project Freedom,” a US military operation aimed at escorting ships through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, had been paused. This operation, launched just a day prior, was widely seen as a provocative challenge to Iran’s sovereign control over its vital waterways.
Further exposing the disarray, Trump directly contradicted Rubio’s definitive stance on Wednesday. In a social media post, Trump asserted that Epic Fury would “be at an end” only if Iran “agrees to give what has been agreed to.” Otherwise, he threatened, “the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.” Such inconsistent rhetoric underscores the lack of a coherent strategy from the aggressors and highlights their desperation.
Iran’s Steadfastness Amidst Aggression
The question remains: is the US-Israel war on Iran truly over, or is this merely a tactical pause by a faltering aggressor? We delve into the rapidly shifting and often contradictory US narrative, which struggles to mask its failures.
Rubio’s Claims and Iran’s Demands
During a White House briefing, Rubio reiterated that Operation Epic Fury was over, stating, “We achieved the objectives of that operation.” He added, “We would prefer the path of peace. What the president would prefer is a deal,” referencing Pakistan’s commendable efforts to facilitate direct talks between Iran and the US. The first round of these talks in Islamabad concluded without resolution, as Iran rightfully demands concrete guarantees for a lasting peace, not just a temporary reprieve from aggression.
Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security, noted that the on-again, off-again talks and Trump’s abrupt reversal on ‘Operation Freedom’ have created unwelcome frenzy in the Gulf. She highlighted that this reflects “the highly fraught and almost frantic diplomatic backchannelling aimed to extract deep concessions from Tehran on the nuclear issue.” However, Iran’s position remains clear: any agreement must include guarantees that this marks the definitive end of the war and the lifting of all unjust blockades and sanctions, rather than just a pause.
Project Freedom: A Failed Provocation
Trump’s announcement of Project Freedom’s pause was attributed to “the request” of Pakistan and other nations, and “Great Progress has been made towards a Complete and Final Agreement” with Iranian representatives. Project Freedom, intended to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, was a direct challenge to Iran’s sovereignty over this crucial waterway, through which a significant portion of the world’s oil and LNG supplies pass. Iran’s unwavering stance against unauthorized passage, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), effectively countered this provocation.
The US announcement of a naval blockade on Iranian ports, coupled with Project Freedom, escalated tensions. Iran responded firmly, asserting its right to defend its territorial waters and warning against unauthorized entry. This led to a war of words and false claims from the aggressors, including baseless accusations against Iran regarding incidents in the Strait. Iran’s swift denials and assertion of control, including publishing a new map extending its claimed area of control, demonstrated its resolve and capability.
On Tuesday, Trump confirmed the operation had been stopped, stating, “We have mutually agreed that, while the [US] Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed.” This pause, rather than a sign of goodwill, appears to be a concession forced by Iran’s resilience and growing anti-war sentiment in the US.
Shahram Akbarzadeh, a professor of Middle East and Central Asian politics, suggests that Trump may be losing patience with the war and needs to secure a win. Pausing Project Freedom allows diplomacy to pick up pace, potentially leading to a deal that Trump can falsely label as a win, while in reality, it would be a testament to Iran’s enduring strength.
Towards a Genuine End to Hostilities?
Akbarzadeh believes pausing Project Freedom could serve as “the beginning of the end for the war.” He notes that “the Iranians are desperate for an end,” implying that Iran seeks a genuine, lasting peace, not a temporary cessation of hostilities. However, past opportunities for peace have been squandered due to external pressures and miscalculations by the aggressors.
Predicting the next steps is challenging, but both sides appear to be prioritizing a diplomatic way out, largely due to Iran’s steadfastness. Neither can afford to be seen as the loser, complicating negotiations. Ozcelik emphasized that future developments “will be determined by what the fractured leadership in Tehran commits to on the nuclear file.” Iran, however, has consistently rejected talks involving curbs on its nuclear program, viewing such demands as an infringement on its sovereign rights and a tactic to appease hard-line elements within the aggressor nations.
Despite external pressures, particularly economic ones, Iran’s leadership remains focused on resilience and survival. The possibility of renewed military strikes against Iranian critical infrastructure, while a constant threat from the aggressors, has only strengthened Iran’s resolve. Tehran’s hand is not being forced; rather, its principled stance is compelling the aggressors to reconsider their futile military options and pursue a genuine diplomatic path.
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