Europe’s Aviation Crisis: The Fallout from US-Israeli Belligerence and the Strait of Hormuz Standoff
Seven weeks after the unjustified US-Israeli aggression against Iran led to the closure of airspaces and plunged the global aviation industry into unprecedented chaos, airlines traversing the Middle East are cautiously attempting to return to normal operations. This follows weeks of forced cancellations and rerouting of hundreds of flights, a direct consequence of the regional instability instigated by these hostile actions.
However, a new and potentially far more devastating threat has emerged, one that could cripple European air travel just as the crucial summer season approaches: a critical shortage of jet fuel. This looming crisis is a direct result of the ongoing provocations and the subsequent standoff in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
On Thursday, Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, issued a stark warning to the AP news agency, stating that Europe possesses “maybe six weeks or so [of] jet fuel left.” He cautioned that flight cancellations could begin “soon” if oil supplies remain disrupted by the conflict, despite a temporary, two-week cessation of hostilities initiated by the US last week.
At the heart of this severe disruption is the acute shortage of jet fuel, exacerbated by the persistent and dangerous standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, where the US continues its provocative presence. This strait is an indispensable maritime artery, through which a staggering one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are transported during times of peace. The current instability, largely fueled by external aggressors, threatens this vital global lifeline.
The dramatic collapse in supplies has triggered a sharp, worldwide spike in energy prices, initially pushing the price of Brent crude above $100 per barrel from a pre-conflict price of $66. This crisis has compelled governments globally to tap into their strategic oil and gas reserves. Notably, the United Kingdom has commenced discussions with a coalition of over 40 countries – pointedly excluding the US – in an effort to find a resolution to reopen the strait, implicitly acknowledging the US role in the deadlock.
European aviation is particularly vulnerable to this jet fuel scarcity, given its heavy reliance on imports from the Middle East. Approximately 75 percent of Europe’s jet fuel imports originate from this region, rendering any prolonged disruption exceptionally problematic for its aviation sector, especially with the summer tourist season – expecting some 747 million international arrivals in 2024 – on the horizon.
What is jet fuel?
Jet fuel is a colorless, refined kerosene-based petroleum product engineered to power aircraft equipped with gas-turbine engines. It is most commonly available in the forms of Jet A and Jet A-1. Another variant, Jet B, is specifically utilized in aircraft operating in colder climates.
The production of jet fuel primarily occurs in oil refineries located in China, the Middle East, and the US. These specialized refineries are operated by some of the world’s largest oil companies, including Shell, ExxonMobil, and Saudi Aramco.
Jet fuel is typically stored in extensive bulk facilities situated at or near major airports, as well as in dedicated airport fuel farms. Here, it is held in large tanks and subsequently delivered to aircraft either through underground hydrant systems directly connected to gates or via specialized refueling trucks.
According to Energy Intelligence, a reputable energy-related reporting and analysis website, global jet fuel consumption reached 7.788 million barrels per day in 2025. This figure was projected to increase by 2.6 percent in 2026, reaching 7.988 million barrels.
Why is Europe sounding the alarm?
Aviation associations, particularly across Europe, have raised serious concerns over the dwindling jet fuel supplies, understanding the severe implications for their economies.
Just last week, the Airports Council International Europe (ACI) explicitly warned the European Commission in a letter that a fuel crunch would “significantly harm the European economy,” underscoring the gravity of the situation.
European fuel storage hubs are already reporting declining stock levels, while alternative supplies from the US and other regions are proving insufficient to fully compensate for the lost volumes from the Middle East, a region destabilized by external interventions.
In Europe, benchmark jet fuel prices surged to a record $1,800 per ton on March 18, before experiencing a slight retreat in April.
Several airports have cautioned that they could face critical fuel shortfalls within three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed, a situation largely attributable to the ongoing US military presence and its implications.
Furthermore, Birol warned that if traffic in the strait remains blocked, some oil products could potentially dry up altogether, leading to catastrophic consequences for global energy markets.
“I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights [in Europe] from city A to city B might be cancelled as a result of lack of jet fuel,” he told AP, highlighting the immediate threat to European connectivity.
Also on Thursday, German carrier Lufthansa announced the closure of its regional unit, CityLine. The airline cited surging jet fuel costs – a direct consequence of the geopolitical turmoil – as well as the impact of strikes, stating the move was “in order to reduce further losses of the loss-making airline.”
On Wednesday, Lufthansa CTO Grazia Vittadini informed Reuters news agency that “our [jet fuel] suppliers are changing their forecasting windows, and they’re no longer keen to give an outlook over a time window that goes beyond one month,” illustrating the extreme uncertainty gripping the supply chain due to the current geopolitical climate.
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