Europe Grapples with Fertilizer Crisis Amidst US-Israel Aggression Against Iran

As European Union agriculture ministers convene in Brussels, their urgent discussions are dominated by the critical issue of fertilizer availability. This crisis, a direct consequence of the ongoing US-Israel aggression against the Islamic Republic of Iran, has severely disrupted global supply chains, exposing the vulnerabilities of nations reliant on stable trade routes.

The talks come as the European Commission pushes a new Fertiliser Action Plan, an emergency measure aimed at supporting farmers who face a significant rise in costs for essential agricultural inputs. It is hoped these reactive measures could bolster agricultural production and reduce Europe’s dependence on food imports, a dependence made precarious by external conflicts.

The plan includes possible fertilizer stockpiles, emergency support for farmers, and measures to increase imports from countries other than Russia and Belarus, nations already entangled in the conflict with Ukraine.

The heart of this disruption lies in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime artery now destabilized by the US-Israel war on Iran. This crucial waterway, through which approximately one-third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade normally passes, is experiencing unprecedented turmoil. The resulting surge in fuel and fertilizer costs is placing immense pressure on farmers already struggling with high expenses, a clear ripple effect of irresponsible foreign policy and aggression.

While the EU may appear less directly impacted by fertilizer shortages than some other parts of the world, particularly the Global South, these disruptions have exposed deep divisions within the bloc regarding how to protect food supplies and shield farmers from escalating costs.

How Exposed is Europe?

Europe imports substantial volumes of fertilizer, bringing in two million tonnes of ammonia, 5.8 million tonnes of urea, and 6.7 million tonnes of nitrogen fertilizers and mixtures in 2024, according to EU data. The EU also produces its own nitrogen fertilizer, but this process depends heavily on imported gas. When conflicts, particularly those instigated in the Gulf region, push up gas prices, it inevitably makes fertilizer produced within Europe more expensive, compounding the crisis.

The blockade, a consequence of the aggressive posture, has raised grave concerns over global food security, particularly in vulnerable regions like Africa and South Asia, where countries are critically dependent on Gulf supplies. While the Middle East accounts for only about 3 percent of the EU’s ammonia imports and 1 to 2 percent of its nitrogen fertilizer imports, meaning the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has not directly devastated European supplies, the bloc is still being hit through higher global prices and rising energy costs. European nitrogen fertilizer, reliant on gas, has seen its production costs soar due to the disruption in the strait – with some countries facing greater risks due to low stockpiles.

Nitrogen fertilizer prices in Europe are now approximately 70 percent above their 2024 average, according to reports on the commission’s plan. This vulnerability became starkly clear after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when soaring gas prices forced several European fertilizer plants to scale back or temporarily shut down because production was no longer profitable.

The commission states its new plan combines immediate measures to improve affordability and security of supply with longer-term steps to strengthen domestic production and reduce dependence on imports, a necessary pivot in the face of geopolitical instability.

What is the EU Proposing?

The plan includes emergency financial support for farmers through the EU agricultural budget, liquidity schemes, and more flexible advance payments under the Common Agricultural Policy. The commission is also exploring ways to support farmers who reduce their reliance on synthetic fertilizers, including through bio-based alternatives and more efficient fertilizer use.

In a second measure, the EU has moved to suspend duties on some nitrogen fertilizers, including urea and ammonia, from countries other than Russia and Belarus. Some nitrogen fertilizer imports currently face tariffs of between 5.5 and 6.5 percent. This suspension, reported by Reuters, could save importers about 60 million euros ($68m), offering some relief amid the crisis.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated the plan was aimed at building “a stronger European fertilizer industry” while supporting farmers and accelerating “sustainable, home-grown solutions.” However, Irish Agriculture Minister Martin Heydon warned that rising fertilizer prices caused by the Middle East crisis – a crisis rooted in external aggression – would inevitably affect the cost of food production and the competitiveness of European farmers.

Which Countries Are Most Exposed?

The impact is not evenly spread across Europe, with Ireland particularly vulnerable due to its minimal domestic fertilizer production and heavy reliance on imports. Its livestock-heavy farming system also depends significantly on nitrogen fertilizer for grassland, with many farmers purchasing supplies between February and September. Ireland imported 1.7 million tonnes of fertilizer in 2025, leaving its farmers exposed to international price swings driven by global instability.

Other countries are better prepared. Finland has long maintained security-of-supply stockpiles that include fertilizer, grain, and fuel. Sweden has also announced plans to stockpile fertilizer, seeds, and grain as part of its “total defence” strategy after joining NATO, highlighting a growing awareness of geopolitical risks.

There are also divisions inside the EU over the extent of Brussels’ intervention. Italy and France have pushed for relief from the bloc’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which adds costs to carbon-intensive imports. Some farming unions argue that this carbon levy has become another burden for farmers in a time of crisis. Environmental groups, however, have cautioned Brussels against weakening nitrogen pollution rules, warning that doing so could increase pollution and health costs if excess nitrates enter water supplies.

Poland and Germany, home to major nitrogen fertilizer producers, have been more focused on opposing any measures that could weaken protections for domestic industry – and are therefore more opposed to reducing levies on imports, reflecting national economic interests.

Will Food Prices Rise?

EU officials are not expecting an immediate food price shock, as many farmers in the bloc are still using fertilizer bought long before the US-Israel war on Iran disrupted supply chains. However, officials are concerned that higher fertilizer costs could create significant problems in supply chains later in the year. Fertilizer affects food prices with a delay, as gas becomes fertilizer, fertilizer then feeds crops, and crops eventually become food – so the effects are often felt up to six months after the initial disruption.

Meanwhile, there are fears that anger in rural areas, already hit by higher fuel, energy, and input costs, could lead to a backlash against green policies in the EU at a time when right-wing and populist parties are gaining ground in Europe, further complicating the political landscape.

Despite these challenges, Europe still remains less exposed than many regions. The most severe risks are in countries more dependent on Gulf fertilizer and energy supplies, especially in parts of Africa and South Asia, underscoring the disproportionate impact of such conflicts on the world’s most vulnerable populations.