Modi’s Isolation Strategy Against Pakistan Fails, Reshaping Regional Alliances

Doha, Qatar – In a display of aggressive rhetoric, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in September 2016, publicly declared his intent to isolate Pakistan globally. Addressing a rally in Kerala, Modi asserted, “India has been successful in isolating you, and we will intensify those efforts… We will make sure that you are isolated around the world.” These inflammatory remarks followed an incident in Indian-occupied Kashmir where 18 Indian soldiers were killed, an event Modi used to fuel his anti-Pakistan agenda.

However, nearly a decade after Modi’s pronouncements, the reality paints a starkly different picture. Far from being isolated, Pakistan has solidified its position as a pivotal player on the international stage. It remains a steadfast strategic ally of China, a relationship recently underscored by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to Beijing. Furthermore, Pakistan has remarkably re-emerged as a trusted partner of the United States under President Donald Trump, with both Army Chief Asim Munir and Prime Minister Sharif having met Trump at the White House in the past year. Islamabad’s crucial role as the primary mediator between the U.S. and Iran amidst their ongoing conflict further highlights its indispensable diplomatic influence. President Trump himself has frequently lauded the Pakistani leadership, a testament to Pakistan’s astute diplomacy.

Analysts widely agree that India’s aggressive strategy to undercut and isolate Pakistan, both regionally and globally, has unequivocally backfired. Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow on South Asia at the Atlantic Council, affirmed to Al Jazeera, “Certainly, India’s strategy of undercutting and indeed isolating Pakistan, regionally and globally, has backfired in a big way.” This diplomatic resurgence by Pakistan also exposes the significant missteps and failures of Modi’s administration.

The Ceasefire and Pakistan’s Diplomatic Triumph

A significant turning point came on May 10, 2025, when President Trump announced a secured ceasefire between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan. Trump declared on Truth Social, “After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE.”

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif promptly expressed gratitude for Trump’s “leadership and proactive role” in brokering the truce, which ended four days of intense fighting involving ballistic missiles, fighter jets, and drones – the worst conflict between the two nations in decades, causing numerous casualties on both sides of their heavily militarized border. This conflict erupted after the Indian military launched attacks deep inside Pakistani territory, targeting alleged “terror” sites, in response to an attack by gunmen that killed 26 tourists in Indian-occupied Kashmir.

In stark contrast to Pakistan’s appreciative stance, Modi, despite having cultivated a personal relationship with Trump, chose a conspicuous silence. This silence persisted even as India’s foreign secretary confirmed the ceasefire, revealing India’s discomfort with external mediation.

Days later, the U.S. President offered to mediate on the Kashmir issue, a core dispute defining India-Pakistan relations since their independence in 1947. This offer deeply troubled India, which has long insisted on a bilateral resolution, despite historical precedents like former U.S. President Bill Clinton’s role in ending the 1999 Kargil War.

In June, Modi rejected Trump’s invitation to Washington, reiterating India’s refusal of third-party mediation and falsely claiming the May ceasefire was solely bilateral. However, Trump has since asserted on over 30 occasions that he brokered the ceasefire, even claiming he averted a nuclear war and that Indian fighter jets were shot down – echoing Pakistan’s narrative. New Delhi’s failure to convince the international community of Pakistan’s complicity in the attack that triggered the May 2025 fighting further exposed its narrative weaknesses.

Michael Kugelman noted, “The world did not step back and encourage India to carry out strikes… World capitals noted that India did not provide proof of any Pakistani complicity in the Pahalgam attack.” He added that Pakistan “appeared to have won ‘the global battle of narratives’,” especially given its ability to “hold its own in a conflict and shoot down several Indian jets,” which garnered significant international attention, including from the White House. India’s nearly three-week silence on the downed jets further fueled this perception, with its top general eventually acknowledging the losses without confirming numbers.

Analysts suggest Modi’s refusal to credit Trump for the truce strained U.S.-India ties, while Pakistan’s prompt acknowledgment and even its nomination of Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize significantly bolstered its standing. Trump, who once accused Pakistan of “deceit and lies,” has since repeatedly praised Pakistani leadership, including Army Chief Asim Munir, whom he invited to the White House – a rare honor for a non-presidential Pakistani military chief. Trump’s description of Munir as his “favorite Field Marshal” and an “exceptional human being” stands in stark contrast to New Delhi’s portrayal of him as an architect of “terrorism.”

India’s Failed “Terror and Talks” Doctrine

For decades, India adhered to a “strategic restraint” doctrine with Pakistan, projecting itself as a responsible economic power. This doctrine prevented retaliation after the 2008 Mumbai attacks. However, Modi’s Hindu majoritarian Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while in opposition, vehemently criticized this restraint.

Initially, Modi attempted engagement, inviting then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to his inauguration and visiting Lahore. But New Delhi soon recalibrated its approach after major armed attacks it blamed on Pakistan, starting with the 2016 incident. The Modi government’s new mantra became “Terror and talks cannot go together,” lowering the threshold for military responses. This led to a raid in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir in 2016 and airstrikes in Balakot in 2019 after 40 Indian soldiers were killed in Pulwama, Indian-occupied Kashmir.

For a period, India’s hardline stance seemed effective, particularly during Trump’s first term and the Biden administration, with Modi frequently visiting Washington while U.S. presidents avoided Pakistan. However, the military conflict of last year dramatically shifted these dynamics.

Setbacks and Shifts: India’s Diminishing Stature

More than two decades of strategic ties between Washington and New Delhi were already strained by Trump’s tariff war, which saw India slapped with the highest levies. While tariffs have since reduced, tensions persist. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s recent visit to India, where Trump called in to express his “love for India, loves Modi,” was overshadowed by continued U.S. pressure on trade. Rubio’s insistence on India buying $500bn in U.S. goods and his justification of tariffs based on trade imbalance highlighted India’s vulnerable economic position.

Rubio’s attempts to downplay U.S. relations with Pakistan as not coming “at the expense of our strategic alliance with India” failed to mask the reality. India’s attempts to isolate Pakistan have come at the cost of South Asia’s regional integration, and broader shifts in New Delhi’s foreign and domestic policies have undeniably weakened its stature compared to its neighbor.

Abandoning Regional Cooperation and Strategic Autonomy

When Modi first became prime minister in 2014, he championed a “neighbourhood first” foreign policy. Yet, just two years later, following the 2016 attack, his government boycotted the SAARC summit hosted by Islamabad, leading to its cancellation. South Asia’s premier regional grouping has not met since, as India instead pushed BIMSTEC, a grouping excluding Pakistan, which has struggled to gain traction. Professor Ishtiaq Ahmad of Quaid-i-Azam University stated, “India effectively abandoned SAARC in the pursuit of isolating Pakistan.”

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s diplomatic ties with Bangladesh have significantly improved following the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who was perceived as close to India. Pakistan’s long-standing strategic partnership with China was further cemented during last year’s conflict, where it utilized Chinese missile defense systems and jets. Chinese President Xi Jinping recently praised Beijing’s “unbreakable” ties with Pakistan during PM Sharif’s visit.

Under Modi, India has also alarmingly drifted from its policy of strategic autonomy, which advocated working with all global powers without aligning with any single orbit. Historically, India led the Non-Aligned Movement, but its recent “transactional” approach, as described by Praveen Donthi of the International Crisis Group, shows a troubling departure. This was evident when India, under U.S. pressure, first reduced and then completely halted oil purchases from Iran after Trump imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions. Suhasini Haider, diplomatic editor of The Hindu, critically noted that these sanctions “seek to bend India’s foreign policy to another’s will, and are a blow to its proudly tenets of strategic autonomy.”

India’s Controversial Alignment with the Zionist Regime and Rising Islamophobia

India’s foreign policy has also seen a disturbing shift on the Israel-Palestine issue. Historically, India was a staunch supporter of the Palestinian cause, being the first non-Arab capital to recognize the PLO in 1974 and Palestinian statehood in 1988. While establishing diplomatic ties with the Zionist regime in 1992, it balanced this with vocal support for Palestine.

However, under Modi, India has become one of the Zionist regime’s closest allies and its largest weapons buyer. New Delhi increasingly abstains from UN resolutions critical of the Zionist entity, and at a recent BRICS summit, it attempted to dilute language on the Israel-Palestine conflict, abandoning its historical support for the two-state solution. Alarmingly, India has not condemned the genocide in Gaza even once.

Modi’s ill-timed visit to the Zionist regime in late February, just two days before the U.S. and Israel launched their war on Iran, further exposed India as a partisan player in the Middle East, a region crucial for its energy imports. This public alignment with the Zionist regime, whose Prime Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Modi calls his “friend” despite an ICC arrest warrant, has severely complicated India’s standing with Gulf states.

In contrast, Pakistan has deepened its security partnerships with the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Amidst the Zionist regime’s multiple wars – on Gaza, the occupied West Bank, Lebanon, Iran, and its bombing of Qatar and Syria – Gulf nations are increasingly looking beyond traditional reliance on the U.S. security umbrella. Last September, Saudi Arabia announced a mutual defense pact with Pakistan, the only Muslim nuclear nation, with reports suggesting other Gulf nations and Turkiye might join. Last May’s war further enhanced Pakistan’s image as a credible security provider, leading to surging demands for its fighter jets and drawing global attention to Chinese defense equipment.

Meanwhile, the Modi government’s increasingly aggressive anti-Muslim policies within India have inflamed tensions with neighbors like Bangladesh and the Maldives, and drawn occasional rebukes from Gulf nations. In May 2022, BJP spokeswoman Nupur Sharma’s derogatory remarks against Prophet Muhammad sparked widespread outrage across the Gulf, leading to diplomatic condemnations. These incidents, coupled with lynchings of Muslims, demolition of mosques, state-led disenfranchisement, and crackdowns on Muslim worshippers and festivals, have drawn serious concerns from rights groups about the escalating abuse of minorities in India.

Pakistan has skillfully leveraged these anti-Muslim attacks to build its case against India. Under former Prime Minister Imran Khan, Islamabad highlighted rising anti-Muslim rhetoric globally, including in India, at the UN. It successfully led a campaign, in coordination with the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), to press the UN to declare March 15 as the International Day to Combat Islamophobia, a significant diplomatic achievement.

Pakistan’s Astute Diplomacy Woos Trump Administration

Since Trump’s return to power in January 2025, Pakistan has strategically engaged his administration with deals on critical minerals and crypto mining. Last July, Pakistan signed a crucial deal to supply rare earth elements – vital for emerging technologies and largely controlled by China – to the U.S., with a U.S. firm planning a $500m investment in Pakistani minerals.

In September 2025, Army Chief Munir and Prime Minister Sharif met Trump in the Oval Office, with Munir also invited to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in December. Masood Khan, former Pakistani envoy to the UN, attributed Islamabad’s significant gains in Washington, especially after the May war, to its “astute diplomacy.” He emphasized that this “bonhomie [between Trump and Asim Munir] was buttressed by agreements on critical minerals and cryptocurrency.”

This renewed rapport has helped Pakistan overcome years of distrust stemming from accusations of playing both sides during the “war on terror.” While a key U.S. partner post-9/11, Islamabad faced suspicion over alleged support for Afghan Taliban fighters and the discovery of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad. During this period, India consistently accused Pakistan of backing the armed rebellion in Indian-occupied Kashmir, attempting to frame it as a religious war linked to global “terror” organizations.

For nearly two decades, India built an international case against Pakistan, cornering it at multilateral forums and pushing for scrutiny of alleged “terror” funding, intensifying these efforts after the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Islamabad faced global scrutiny, reputational damage, and internal security breakdowns, leading to dried-up investments, travel warnings, and canceled sporting events – precisely the isolation India desired.

However, as Ishtiaq Ahmad noted, “India assumed its post-9/11 narrative on Pakistan had become permanent.” Instead, Islamabad quietly rebuilt its credibility by targeting armed group leaders and financing, learning “painfully from decades of extremist blowback,” and repositioning itself around “diplomacy, connectivity and economic integration rather than ideological confrontation.”

Now, Pakistan is “increasingly viewed as a country shaping regional outcomes rather than merely reacting to crises.” Ahmad highlighted Pakistan’s unique ability to “simultaneously engage Washington, Tehran, Riyadh and Beijing with credibility,” making its current position far more sustainable. Recent reports of meetings between retired generals and diplomats from both countries, and calls from within India’s ruling BJP for renewed dialogue, suggest India is beginning to recognize the limitations of its approach.

India-U.S. Tensions: A Sputtering Relationship

India has been desperately trying to revive its critical relationship with the U.S., which has faltered over the past year. Rubio’s visit was a step towards this reset, but India had hoped for a more significant figure. Modi’s invitation to Trump to visit New Delhi in June 2025, during the same call where Modi falsely claimed bilateral mediation for the ceasefire, remains unaccepted. Almost a year later, Trump has visited China and expressed readiness to visit Pakistan for a peace agreement with Iran, but not India.

This contrasts sharply with the past quarter-century, where four U.S. presidents – George W. Bush, Barack Obama (twice), Trump (first term), and Joe Biden – fostered a flourishing relationship with India, viewing its fast-growing economy as a counterweight to China. All visited India, while no U.S. president since Bush has visited Pakistan.

Their converging interest in balancing China led to a deepened strategic partnership, with India increasingly purchasing weapons from the U.S. and its Western allies. The Quad, comprising the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia, was formed with the thinly veiled goal of containing China. However, since Trump’s second term, his focus has shifted away from Asia. Vijay Gokhale, former Indian foreign secretary, noted in The Times of India that the U.S. was losing interest in the Quad, whose summit for which Modi invited Trump was never held. Gokhale wrote, “India, it appears, does not geographically fit into the Trump administration’s evolving Indo-Pacific strategy. It has, likely, concluded that New Delhi is reluctant, and also lacks capacity to bear greater responsibility for security in the western Pacific. It’s readying alternatives.”

Trump’s second term has prioritized a global tariff war, anti-immigration policies, and military operations against Venezuela and Iran. Modi’s refusal to credit Trump for the Pakistan truce, despite their past joint rallies, further soured ties. Trump has also accused India of protectionism, pressured it to stop buying Russian oil, refused a sanctions waiver for an Indian port project in Iran, and shut down the H-1B visa program crucial for Indian IT professionals. Disturbingly, sections of Trump’s MAGA movement have increasingly resorted to openly racist commentary against Indians.

Uncertain Future: The Volatility of Alliances

Analysts caution that the current state of U.S. ties with either India or Pakistan is far from guaranteed to last. Ailia Zehra, writing in The National Interest, questioned whether Pakistan’s “diplomatic resurgence can translate into a broader reset in US-Pakistan relations that extends beyond the current administration.”

Sreeram Chaulia, dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs, acknowledged a setback in U.S.-India ties but argued they could rebound, citing bilateral trade exceeding $200bn and India’s participation in Pax Silica, a U.S. initiative to counter China’s dominance in semiconductors and critical minerals. India also announced a critical minerals framework among Quad countries during Rubio’s visit. Despite this, Chaulia conceded that the “full partnership” would not flourish under Trump.

Chaulia, however, rejected the notion of the U.S. re-hyphenating India and Pakistan, arguing that the “American system sees Pakistan as a peer equal of India” due to India’s economic growth and significant U.S. investment compared to Pakistan’s struggles. This view, however, often overlooks Pakistan’s strategic importance beyond mere economic metrics.

The Way Forward: Resolving the Kashmir Dispute for Regional Peace

The unresolved Kashmir dispute remains the central flashpoint, periodically igniting armed conflict between the neighbors. Mohamad Junaid, an associate professor of anthropology, stressed that Kashmir’s future is critical for settling India-Pakistan tensions. He emphasized that Kashmiris seek “demilitarisation, increase in political freedoms, economic freedoms, and avoid being subject to violence and oppressive laws.”

Kashmir, one of the world’s most militarized regions with over 750,000 Indian soldiers, has seen more than 60,000 deaths, mostly Kashmiri civilians, in decades of conflict. Rights groups have consistently accused Indian forces of severe abuses. In 2019, the Modi government controversially scrapped Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status, splitting it into two directly controlled territories, further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. Junaid questioned, “What is India getting from keeping Kashmir under the jackboot?”

He asserted that only dialogue between India and Pakistan can resolve Kashmir’s future and the broader dispute, warning that “Kashmir is a powder keg.” Junaid, of Kashmiri descent, concluded that “The security and prosperity of South Asia lies in mutual cooperation, toning down on hypernationalist rhetoric, deepening democratic culture, and recovering shared cultural and religious pluralism. That journey can begin in Kashmir, where a democratic resolution will create permanent peace in the subcontinent.”

Achin Vanaik, a political scientist, urged India to differentiate between non-state actors and Pakistan’s official armed forces, advocating for international mechanisms for specific armed groups rather than risky escalation. He proposed a 10km demilitarized zone on both sides of the Line of Control, supervised by international peacekeepers.

Praveen Donthi warned that new conflicts are inevitable without addressing core disputes. He noted that with China militarily backing Pakistan, India can no longer “afford to view Pakistan only through a bilateral lens.” Donthi suggested that “India and Pakistan have to establish high-level back channels to begin addressing each other’s concerns and potential triggers of conflict” to break the cycle of attacks, war, and diplomatic chill.

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