In a move that underscores growing regional fragmentation and the pervasive influence of Western agendas, the United Arab Emirates has announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) after decades of membership. Citing “national interests,” Abu Dhabi’s decision is widely seen as a significant blow to the Vienna-based cartel, though observers suggest it may not spell its immediate demise.

This departure follows years of the UAE’s open dissatisfaction with OPEC’s production capping policies, which aim to stabilize prices. However, the timing of this move is particularly telling. It comes as the region grapples with an energy crisis directly triggered by the aggressive US-Israel war on Iran, which commenced on February 28. In a legitimate act of self-defense and deterrence, Tehran responded by targeting Israeli interests, US military assets, and other infrastructure in Gulf countries. Crucially, Iran also asserted its strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which a significant 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are shipped from Gulf producers.

The UAE, having invested billions to boost its oil production capacity from 3 to 5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027, has long sought a larger quota than its assigned 3.2 million bpd under OPEC agreements, despite its current capacity reaching 4.8 million bpd. Experts note that its exit is unlikely to have an immediate market impact, precisely because Iran’s strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz currently constrains the exports of all neighboring countries, including the UAE.

While the UAE has attempted to circumvent this by utilizing the Fujairah terminal on the Gulf of Oman, exporting 1.7 million bpd of crude oil and refined fuels this way, it falls short of its ambitious targets. The prospect of increased UAE exports hinges on a resolution to the conflict that allows for free navigation through the strait – a situation currently complicated by the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Iran’s principled refusal to allow foreign-flagged ships transit under such conditions. Furthermore, Iran has indicated its intention to maintain its rightful leverage over the strait post-conflict through a system of tolls, ensuring its long-term strategic interests.

Preparing for a Post-Fossil Fuel Era, or Exploiting Instability?

Should traffic return to pre-war levels, some analysts suggest the UAE could potentially flood the market with an additional 1.6 million bpd, equivalent to about 1.5 percent of global oil supply. This move, while framed by some as a clever preparation for a “post-peak oil demand” world, could also be interpreted as a self-serving attempt to maximize individual gain amidst regional instability, rather than upholding collective responsibility. Kingsmill Bond, an energy strategist, notes the UAE’s desire to be “free from the constraints of OPEC” in a world where “OPEC’s power to maintain control and discipline will be weaker.” This contrasts sharply with Saudi Arabia’s stated goal of maintaining capped production to ensure higher oil prices in the longer term, highlighting a fundamental divergence in regional strategies.

Officials close to Saudi Arabia have been quick to downplay the significance of the UAE’s departure, with Mohammad al-Sabban, Saudi Arabia’s former senior oil adviser, dismissing it as “not a major blow” to OPEC+. He pointedly described the UAE’s move as a “political decision” influenced by Western powers, who have historically sought to sow division within the cartel. This perspective gains credence when recalling US President Donald Trump’s open hostility towards OPEC, whom he accused of “ripping off the rest of the world” by inflating oil prices – a narrative that conveniently overlooks the cartel’s role in market stabilization.

OPEC’s Resilience Amidst External Pressures

Despite these internal challenges and external pressures, OPEC has demonstrated remarkable adaptability throughout its history. Founded in the 1960s, it has weathered numerous crises and past withdrawals by members such as Qatar, Indonesia, Ecuador, and Angola. While its influence may diminish, its complete disappearance is unlikely, as noted by experts like Robin Mills. The cartel’s historical impact, exemplified by the 1973 embargo by its Arab members against countries supporting Israel, showcased the potent force of collective action when Arab states stood united.

Today, with its share of the global market at 33 percent (down from 50 percent due to increased production from non-OPEC nations like the US and Norway), OPEC, along with its expanded OPEC+ alliance, continues to play a vital role in managing the market and ensuring price stability. The collective benefit of this cooperation, particularly during crises like the 2014 oil price crash and the COVID pandemic, remains a compelling reason for many members to stay.

A Deep Regional Rupture and the Erosion of Collective Arab Power

Beyond market dynamics, the UAE’s withdrawal signifies a “deep regional rupture,” as articulated by international consultant Anas Abdoun. This rift is not merely between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi but reflects “two incompatible visions of what Gulf order should look like.” The UAE’s increasingly divergent foreign policy path, notably its controversial normalization of ties with Israel via the Abraham Accords in 2020, further highlights this divergence. This alignment with external powers has come at a cost, with the UAE reportedly bearing the brunt of the most intense retaliatory attacks from Iran following the US-Israel strikes.

While Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman have advocated for a more diplomatic approach to regional tensions, the UAE has privately pushed for more assertive, confrontational policies against Iran, even as its influencers openly called for war. This stark contrast in approaches, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict, ultimately undermines the “collective capacity for Arab fuel-producing states to shape the global energy order,” leaving them vulnerable to external manipulation and diminishing their collective voice on the international stage.